A 23-Year Analysis of Dependency Ratio in Rural Population in Fars Province during 1990-2012: A Trend Analysis Study

Alireza Mirahmadizadeh, Mitra Rahimi Haghighi, Pegah Shoa Hagighi, Abdolrasool Hemmati, Mohsen Moghadami


Background: The dependency ratio (DR) is defined as the ratio of the non-working population to the economically active population. Dependency ratio is calculated by the sum of population under fifteen years and over 65 years divided by 15-64 year old population. The interpretation of DR variation gives us the impact of health care services and some reproductive interventions. This study analyzed a 23-year DR trend in rural population of Fars province and the effect of some fertility variables on it.


Methods: In this study, using data from vital horoscope and regression analysis, we analyzed a 23-year period of DR and some fertility indicators.


Results: The total DR significantly declined from 102.5% in 1990 to 41.4% in 2012 (P<0.001). Most of this reduction is attributed to reduction in young DR. Old dependency ratio (population of 65 years and more) was significantly growing (P<0.035). Number of rural health house, family planning coverage, total fertility rate and general fertility rate was significantly associated with total dependency ratio (P<0.009).


Conclusion: We passed the first stage of demographic transition, i.e. young dependency ratio declining. But the old dependency ratio slowly increased; it is recommended that the health care services should be promoted in future, especially services for old age people.


Trend analysis, Dependency ratio, Fertility, Health services

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